I had legs and welcome well here tonight to our second presentation from storm surge to help educate us in our community about the effects of implications of climate change and sea level rise and just out of curiosity I want to see a show of hands if this is your first lecture that you attended or maybe a twenty twenty-five percent of these people are new so our last event was held at the report public library our future events through the into the Christmas season will be held here at the National Wildlife Refuge and the reason storm surge has borne is because we’re a group of concerned citizens and many of us are scientists and educators project managers we’re concerned about what’s happening in our world around us and Fila sell our communities and start paying attention to what’s going on so that we can adapt make the changes necessary to accommodate the what lies ahead of us so part of that process is one of social change which takes a long time and we feel as though we need to educate the populace stimulate a need in the populace to a little bit of pressure on their elected officials to start paying attention to this so start with the these educational seminars and lectures so tonight we have a dark Theater awake lecturing climate change here in New England will be looking at what’s happened in the past what’s going on now what kind of changes will see in the future and he’s well qualified to talk about this he’s research associate professor professor of climate ology at the university of new hampshire and it’s published some set of sudden papers journalists on that subject and others and i want to delay it any longer i’d like to introduce them and welcome him and let’s see what we can find out well really happy to be here with you this evening and thanks for inviting me down hopefully it will be too much lecture or a little bit of information and then leave plenty of time for you guys to answer questions so i will talk for too long but i’ll talk for a while before i dive in actually I really want to tell you the three things that you should know about climate change that I’ve come to understand after 25 years of studying it and I’ll show you all the slides and the data and stuff but here’s the main points first one is climate changes climate always has changed the climate always will change the only difference today is that humans are the main drivers of that change and I can say that because there’s an overwhelming body of scientific evidence that shows that the contested case as a result our future climate is literally in our hands the climate that our children and grand inherit depends fundamentally of the decisions we make today or the neck next decade on how we produce energy on how we use energy and how we adapt to the new climate arm so that’s the important point right the future climate is literally in our hands most of you are my angel older in the audience and that we’re going to be okay it’s our kids and granted they’re really going to suffer as a result what’s happening second is over 25 years that climate change has become a distinctly moral issue for me and I think of that in a couple of different ways what is that it’s the most vulnerable we’re going to suffer the most it is the whole the young the weak the sick and the poor that are going to suffer the most and for proof of that you just have to look at the big disasters we’ve had Katrina and hurricane sent if you had resources you wanted to get out of camp you were stuck in a hospital bed you weren’t it’s also a true that I broke down here in i’ll be in a fuel-efficient car but i did it a bunch of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it’s going to be around for well over on your gears it’s going to be painting our planet for a long time so i get all the benefit of the birth of energy and i put the impact on

last but not least third point is that it’s really not about the economy versus the environment which is often at what how this problem is set up and especially in New England it’s about the economy and environment we really have to work to replace the tyranny of the or for the opportunity of the end and again there’s two ways I think about that what it is weather disasters that work that are getting us with hurricane sandy sort of talking right 65 billion dollars it’s a lot of money we’ve got a cigarette how we can make our communities more resilient so that we save people’s lives will protect their quality of life which so that we can rebound after weather disasters that we see and that ultimately if we invest up front that’s the same lyst money in the long run the other way to think about that is already to security the only way we can control how much we spend on energy is about controlling how much energy we use and where the energy is generated so we should become more efficient and use less then we should generate all that energy in New England and if we wanted to we could actually have the technical capabilities to solve that problem I’ve done the calculations more than once we have plenty of renewables that we could harness to actually drive our entire economy nick is very comfortable we just have to want to do is it going to cost money can require a huge investment and we have to figure out how we can get that money out of private markets in helping our communities that make sure we can get a rate of return on that but that’s really the challenge before us how do we improve our energy security and how do we make our communities more resilient to climate normal and I think if we actually go down that pathway it would be really good for our new england economy as you cannot the jobs overseas we have pretty much I would argue pretty much full employment if we investigate all right so you can go home now that’s when my three main points but now I would throw a bit all the details just a couple one slide to start I’m actually by trading on an ice core paleoclimatologist and I got to spin this past spring up on finale so this is like the picture of me with the beard filled with ice snow and ice so this is this is our drill site up in Denali National Park there’s mount for her here now country right here or down here the difference you can see our drill site we did a little bit of skiing but we actually trailed two cores to bed rocket in the month of May flew the bed by helicopter than my airplane then my freezer truck and then a federal facility in denver now and just cut them up and we’re going to reconstruct climate change in central Alaska for the last thousand years where it hasn’t been reconstructed and that’s the best the best site for any high score scientist that’s the last piece of core from the bottom of the hole where it goes from the clear ice at the top to the dirty ice right next to the bed but I’m not going to talk about Alaska climate you can’t even talk about climate change in women but I just want to provide a couple of introductory slides and where you can get really good climate information this site is back up now that our government is back up and running it’s called climate God which really easy to remember it’s got lots of stories a nice website 16 different federal agencies contribute to it but I really like it because it has all the data and so you can go in look at how interesting or how solar energy is shaped or how sea levels rise or how no coverage changes or how hard I oxide levels are changing so for your deny your friends if you want to get involved in an argument you can probably do that it’s not too hard but if you actually want to get involved in a discussion you can start off by saying hey let’s look at the data all of the discussions I have people tend to start let’s just talk with the day and see if we can agree on that because if you can’t agree on the data and the science it’s impossible to have a discussion of how to move forward in my humble opinion so this is a great side if you don’t want to go to follow all a scientific literature this is another very powerful data point every four years the Pentagon produces a quadrennial defense review for incoming Congress next ones coming in 2014 and in their last 80 page report they dedicated eight pages to the issue of climate change and that quote which I’ll give you a second to read sums up what they said in eight pages report you cannot separate our future security from the issue of climate change and you can’t separate our security from our economic activity right there intricately linked this is not a liberal think tank right this is the organization that’s responsible for ensuring our security into the future and there be an intact and I’d like to see sort of that as a signal for the rest of our society that actually about talking we got to talk about this but we actually want to start figuring out what it is we’re going to do for the future i’m going to have one piece of ice core information for you i just wanted to set the stage this is a really famous ice

core record that comes from a place called Bostock in antarctica the upper picture in the left hand corner is actually a picture of the Vostok guys or coming into the barrel and that one below it that’s kind of a kaleidoscope of colors is actually a thin section of a nice corfu through crossed polars these hexagonal crystals here are ice crystals and these big block or actually samples the mayor that are trapped in the ice and the snow transforms to ice so when we drill a nice chord we go back in time we pull it out we actually can capture samples of the atmosphere that have attracted the high score last week rush that ice we suck that area and we can mention the trace gas content back four hundred and twenty thousand years ago that’s pretty cool that’s a de cool son big experiment so we’ve been able actually to track carbon dioxide twenty thousand years and there’s something hopefully you see this for the sort of hundred thousand year cycle here right encouraging your glass to glass place you’ll hear eighteen thousand years ago right there was not the living in newberry quarter home island eighteen thousand years ago we’re covered by mile of ice here right sea levels four hundred feet was a very different environment last glacial asta denote ninety thousand years the previous interglacial you can see that hundred thousand year cycle place the lunar base no cycles driven primarily by changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun a change amount of radiation from northern hemisphere embassy that droves that drove this vicious cycle of called an isobutyl feedback loop which you can ask me that if you wanted more the real important point i want to show you is carbon dioxide has never been higher than 300 parts per million live on it and they were lower than 180 parts per million by volume making the earth a pretty nice place to live so thank ecosystem when you go outside for keeping carbon dioxide between these levels right so long term human needs and we figure out that we can burn carbon from the crust that gives us all the energy that we’ve actually used over the course of the last hundred fifty years to do incredible things but there’s this by product called carbon dioxide so that blue line represents the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since we started monitoring it directly in 1957 in hawaii by a scientist of Charles Keeling figured out how to convince his PhD of either to send into hawaii community research so you can see that we have already increased the carbon dioxide content the atmosphere and the mount that’s similar to the transition that we see between the glacial interglacial a all right I have to show you no other piece of evidence to tell you that humans are dramatically changing the Earth’s climate system right there is no doubt why do you care about carbon dioxide because it’s just like a blanket that you put on your bed on a cold east coast with your night it’s not like a greenhouse like a blind kick that blanket helps track while the wave radiation coming from your body greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap long wave radiation coming from the earth we figured out the physics 50 years ago you put more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere it’s going to get warmer basic physics so when I first came to New England I actually learned an interesting Yankee saying but usually parents use for their kids that goes something like if you’re not careful son daughter you’re going to be good end up for your point and that’s exactly what’s going to happen with greenhouse gases in the atmosphere if we continue to rely upon fossil fuel as our main source of energy by the end of the century we’re going to end up with carbon dioxide levels at something on the order a thousand parts per million by volume X from the resulting catastrophic climate change conversely if we invest in energy efficiency and renewable technologies and exporting our American can-do spirit around the world which we’re not doing right now when it comes to energy efficiency renewable technologies we could let led by the end of the century somewhere at 400 to 450 parts per million that’s certainly going to result in some climate change but likely climate change that we can deal with in adapt to so that’s where we’re going that’s where we need to be and the difference is the challenge at our kids and grandkids space just a couple of other global pieces before we dive into and climate change in New England this is a record that has really taken to the world by storm and if you did pay any attention you’ve probably heard about in the newspaper as well so this is the amount of sep tember arctic sea ice extent from nineteen seventy nine to twenty eleven so this is the satellite record of sea ice extent so you can see the y axis the vertical axis of the left hand side has a million of square kilometers and you can see that then the blue line tracks this long-term decline in the amount of sea ice that’s around at the end of the summer so why do you care about arctic sea ice cause it’s white and it reflects incoming solar radiation is a really important component of the Earth’s energy matters

when you remove that sea ice what’s left is dark ocean that absorbs most of that incoming solar radiation and it heats up a lot making it really difficult for the sea ice to form in the winter so we’ve seen this long-term decline and decrease in the air he will extend it’s also getting quite a bit thinner is not as much multi-year sea ice but then we had is crazy year back in two thousand seven when we lost a lot of the multi-year sea ice so there was one year Dixie an independent woman picnic and we had a really warm summer and we had a loss a decrease of 25% of CX at the end of the summer in that one year then it happened again in 2012 and rebounded a little bit this year but we’re essentially going to see the loss of Arctic sea ice sometimes in the next sometime in the next decade or two maybe three and that’s not coming back because the Arctic Ocean is heating up so we sort of cross that tipping point it’s going to disappear and we have to deal with it if you if you have to talk to your ear denialists friends they’ll say well the rebound in 2012 that’s not worry about it but that’s just 2012 cold here so there’s always going to be here to your variability but we’re in a long-term decline the other thing that read on the web is that well don’t worry about it’s going to come back in February we don’t really care about the sea ice in February’s there’s no Sun the Arctic infirmary it’s not really effective I think our synergy analysts that much but then in case you’ve heard about read some newspapers about the global warming pause like it’s not warming up anymore well here’s a dick cable average of temperature’s going up through 2010 and you can see that we continue to warm what’s happened over the last four to five years is that more of that energy is in fact going into the ocean so that red line represents the world ocean heat content from zero to two thousand meters and the black line is even the deeper ocean right seven hundred and two hundred two thousand meters and you can see that those temperatures are just continuing to go up now this was measured in heat content because the ocean contains and it’s a huge flying rights huge thermal mass so it doesn’t go up a lot in temperature but small temperature it relates to a huge heat content so let me just put that into context for you where is global warming going almost ninety-four percent into the ocean so we see that ellipse and atmospheric temperature but it’s really the ocean temperature and what we want to pay attention to and look at how the ocean is heating up right continuing to heat up in a significant way so that’s where the work is going so let’s turn to do England I guess the real question I’d like you to consider is were you ready for the storm and there’s not any one particular storm i want to point to its any number of storms and you can add the ones that i don’t have up here but this is one snow Tober right but two years ago we’ve got a foot of snow Creek before Halloween when the oak leaves were still on the trees and the utilities right got hammered by the regulator’s because they weren’t ready for a storm that dropped the foot of snow in the end of October so when have we ever had that before right has it that we weren’t ready for it we had big flooding in 05 06 and of 7 from springtime storms one of the pictures up there from Newmarket New Hampshire that got really badly flooded we had Irene which obviously did considerable damage across Vermont and then ascended and their right hand corner so this is very much the new climate normal that we need to be prepared for and I’ve been asked the question Cameron are we prepared i would say that we’re not what we’re really prepared for really good at into england is getting rid of snow from the races so if you don’t believe they go to Washington some time and there’s a big snowstorm and they can’t figure it out this form to still on the ground they can’t fly lit they don’t know where to put it there’s taxis stuck in the street nobody wears boots it’s like what’s wrong with you people in New England we figured that out of our municipal budgets our County budgets are state budgets we bring in salt all summer and said we are prepared for Nor’easters and storms and that’s what we need to start doing for climate to it needs to be a decision made in our family budgets in our community budgets and our municipal budgets in our county budgets and in our state budgets to deal with what the change is going to happen and not just deal with it in the aftermath but actually compare for so the impact is much less that’s probably my main message for tonight alright let’s talk a little bit about the northeast i’m going to show you all that data is it would take weeks i’m just going to show you a few highlights this is by far the most dramatic change that we’ve seen in any single indicator that they look at across the Northeast and it’s an increase in northeast winter temperatures across the entire region so the blue line represents the air

temperature gaming ability and the red line represents the long-term century-long trent and then the trend over the last five decades so what you can see is there’s a long-term warming but really the rate of that warming has done over the course of the past five decades you can also see if you don’t like a winter right wait because the public winter is going to be way different right we know that in me our weather varies here the year considerably but long term significant warming and really increase in the rate of change so if i take that linear trend over the last few years when i bought it as a dot on this map there’s the trend through all the stations that make up that previous plot but you can see that we’re looking at an increase of three to four to greater three to four degrees Fahrenheit or greater temperature increase over the last five decades right this is not climate change in the future this is what’s already happened and it’s clearly related to our semantics of snow cover so you get a little bit of warming you get a little bit less snow cover that snow changes from white snow to brown brown and that ground random more incoming solar radiation and heats up and nelss more snow so this a this is a very particular mid-latitude signal that we’re experiencing and our winters are warming up as a result there’s also i love to play out to ski i left of your life score i love to play I love living in to it as a result and so I’m really concerned about the loss of all the ice that we have on our cons in our legs here’s to really long term records for link Winnipesaukee on top and lake sunapee on the bottom and you can see since about nineteen seventy this is the reasoning that says on top you can see in ice a date so when that ice actually leaves and you can see that it that it’s happening earlier and earlier over the course of the last 40 to 50 years when i was up at the pond hockey classic here’s my my team here at lakewood sake last year was great but year before in February first the ice had not come in I like with it I sake and Meredith babes we need to move the entire tournament this isn’t a small term this is 15 other people playing pond hockey for a weekend and they had to move it off to another leg so I’m sure if you can pay attention you’ve seen that the ponds around here don’t freeze like these so another indicator is changing the extreme precipitation event during the Hampshire’s where the University of New Hampshire is whatever plotted here is four inch precipitation events that occur 24 hour period these are really big great event and on the bottom I’ve bought a number of events for decades of 1948 to 57 58 67 and so on and what you see is that the number of events essentially has doubled up or the for the last decade I first saw this I said I can’t believe somebody’s messing around the Durham met record they have been paying attention but Lawrence Massachusetts it’s exactly the same right it’s the same area Newberry the you guys know that mess efficient right you’re getting way more rain and fewer events and that rain is falling on a watershed that’s got more impervious surface because we’ve developed it in a big way over the course of the last five decades so you’re getting bigger floods cuz there’s more rain and more of that grain is running off into the river resulting in more flooding another way to look at how climate change is affecting the region is to look at what the students states have actually asked for from federal government in terms of presidential declared disasters and emergency declarations and so you know I got different colors from different states but you can begin to see a real change here at funding events that we had in 2005 and Massachusetts suffered quite a bit in this new hampshire agreed or live on state road seven big flooding events i read in 2011 you can see vermont over two hundred million dollars but this isn’t solely a result of climate change this is climate change interacting with communities that have made them selves ulnar about to that changing climate we have not been building our infrastructure so our communities are resilient we’ve been ignoring it as a result receiving more and more damage as our swords are getting bigger and bigger so that’s going to be a key indicator track as we move forward in the future I would also add this pales in comparison to what happened with super story San right 65 billion dollars versus we’re talking at the most right five hundred million dollars let’s not hope something like superstorm sandy hits our coastal it’s down to come eventually our 1938 storm is around the corner somewhere just with a lot more sea level rise here’s how Cena has been changing Portland Maine Boston in New York going back to 1850 you can see that there’s this extend arise about seven to eight inches over the course of the last 100 years Boston in New York are particularly vulnerable because the land is actually have coast of subsidence

while the volume of the oceans increasing we’re a little bit better sort of here going north but you guys are certainly well aware what’s happening it on piloted the houses there its result for sea level rise and big storms all right let’s we’ve already seen considerable climate change so I want to spend the rest of my remarks talking about how climate might change in the future this comes from a number of different studies one of them is the Northeast climate impacts assessment from back in 2006-2007 and you can get all the results i’m going to show you at climate choices org and then more recently I’ve been working with a group of really good scientists to develop a number of different regional or watershed based Regional Climate Assessment so we don’t for Casco Bay that was a great day I’m finishing up to four new hampshire and over the course of the next year or two we want to go back and revisit and do it actually four watersheds and across New England so stay tuned for that I started off by saying future climate is literally in our hands and so this is a graph that sort of shows you that we can’t possibly predict what our economy is going to look like next year next decade let alone 90 years from that so we’re not foolish enough to try instead what climate science and climate scientists have done is really developed a set of possible scenarios think about those storylines things that could happen not necessarily things that will happen and it’s a way for us to actually begin to think about the problem when dealing with significant uncertainty of not knowing what our economies that would be like so this was done by the Intergovernmental Panel starting in two thousand one and it in 2007 and the recent report that just came in but what they said is let’s look at a bunch of different scenarios and I’m just plotting two of the many scenarios develop one is the high efficient scenario that’s in red so what you’re seeing here is numbers that represent carbon emissions associated with a population socio economic and energy future storyline that they develop population grows to 9 billion people by the middle of the century which it almost certainly well we behave a little differently in the developed world and that we actually spend a lot of money to bring the developing world at a poverty but a lot of that elevation of poverty comes with them burning fossil fuel so greenhouse gas emissions take off because the developing world burning a whole bunch more day or two even is worth a company or a 2g efficient the low emission scenario and this is gold gold cart 2 emissions year on the body the low emission scenario seeing population socio economic scenario only difference get our energy through first energy efficiency so we cut our demand for energy by about fifty percent and then we produce that with renewable sources and you can see that our greenhouse gas emissions we need to drop by the middle of the century and then look down concentrations in the atmosphere continued to rise because carbon dioxide has a lifetime of more than 100 years in the atmosphere so then we take those numbers and we use those as drivers for these tools science has called global circulation models or general circulation models and general climate models and it’ll be listened to and so we can look at what the outcome of the two different editions of carbon dioxide are based on temperature and precipitation with these models that actually essentially reconstruct how the Earth’s climate system works what we do is we take the output from these big global climate models and we statistically downscaling it using historical data to develop a relationship between a big rig sell and a whole set of meteorological stations on the ground so we do that so that we can better understand sort of smaller scale changes and do you want to work out that we can get into the technical details but it does a pretty good job at reconstructing climbing over the trading period so I’m going to talk a little bit on how our temperature precipitation might change in the future so here’s temperature going from right 1900 up to 2100 the black line is the historical record the red line represents the higher emissions scenario temperature and the orange line the lower emission scenarios three things from this one is the models actually capture the warming we’ve seen over the last or five decades that’s good global climate models are casually what’s going on in the Northeast second big point by 2050 are 20 40 there’s no difference between the two curves what does that tell you it is unlikely that sorry I would say it is very likely that our temperature is going to go up by an additional two to three degrees Fahrenheit there’s no difference between the emission

scenarios and that’s happened for two reasons there’s incredible inertia in the climate system and that carbon dioxide lasts for a long time in the atmosphere so you can’t solve the problem with a short period of time so that is an amount of informing that we are already committed to and we better start preparing for or it’s going to cost us a lot more money to even if we prepare for it last but not least you’ll see by the end of the century that there’s actually very different amounts of forming and that happens if globally we can transition our energy system over the next decade and the reason that has to happen over the next decade is that once you begin the transition take 30 to 40 years to transition that energy system which also is like a proverbial super tank and it takes forever to turn around you can’t just stop producing energy with fossil fuel and do it all with solar so they take incredible investment lots of hard work but we’ve got to start today so that by the end of the century we have warming that we can adapt to as opposed to more leave its catastrophic so what does that what does that really mean in terms of temperatures so we tried to put this in it in what we call or migrating state-backed so there’s Massachusetts up there 1961 1990 summertime temperatures how hot will Massachusetts feel in the future well under the high edition scenario by the end of the century Massachusetts summers will feel like they currently do in South Carolina conversely if we follow a low emission scenario Massachusetts summers are still going to feel like they do in Baltimore in Washington DC let me put that into perhaps more stark contrast for you currently in Boston Massachusetts you guys are probably a little cooler here than you they are in Boston they currently experience 9 10 days per year that feel as though they’re above 90 degrees Fahrenheit those are the really uncomfortable days usually have had bad air quality associated with them when we’re all running our air conditioners and I know that because the biggest energy demand the lid is now in summertime because of Australia larger conditions by the end of the summer under the high additions there we had expected be 65 days to suffer degrees Fahrenheit which means summers would be a heat wave right two-thirds of the summer will be above 90 degrees punctuated by slightly less uncomfortable days conversely under low emission scenario we’re still looking at 30 days per year that are above 90 degrees Fahrenheit so it’s going to get hotter we’re going to have a lot probably a lot more premature mortality as a result of heat stress probably something we need to start planning for and preparing for projected change is an extreme precipitation I’m going to encourage you all to apply these numbers I can I couldn’t find my other graph when I put this together I just think of that as 246 number of events per decade so you can see for all the stations i have here at concord new hampshire durham adventure lawrence mass portland maine you just put a new very important there we’re looking at a significant increase in the number of these events what have happened in the past sort of 23 24 per decade to essentially 10 to 12 to 14 predicting we’re going to have more babe precipitation events in the future and that rain is going to fall on watershed that have more pavement in them and likely more impervious surface unless we develop our watersheds differently which we can and we technically know how to do we just have to do it but if we continue on business as usual the floods are going to get ever bigger and bigger and any you know we look we look it open from a whole bunch of different models and really they all say the same thing more rain and fewer events and the reason is the warm air can hold more moisture so when we do have precipitation events there’s more moisture in the air that can come down actually I want to share a one research project that was work in the library River where we actually map not only how the hundred year flood chains of the 100-year flood plains of change in the historical period up till today but how they might change in the future so this is we looked at the lamprey River watershed which drains into great baits in southeastern New Hampshire is about 214 square miles and what we did was two things looked at how future climate was going to change we looked at output from a whole bunch of different models and he said the biggest precipitation event in the design storm that most engineers use now for coastal New Hampshire is a design storm is a hundred year storm at how much rain will 100-year storm drop in a 24-hour period and that used to be six point three inches it’s 8.5 inches today and our model suggested that the highest number would be 11.4 inches in the future so we took that change in climate and then we also build out the watershed this is how historically residential development has occurred so that’s up to two thousand six but we could have plotted an exponential curve through that in terms of residential development so calls the

fifty percent of the watershed is novella and then didn’t say them a significant commercial and industrial growth do we know this is going to happen absolutely not it’s a plausible story line you can compare today as the best case scenario to out there and it’s almost the worst case scenario and then we redrew the hundred year flood plain maps in the same we use the same methodology that FIBA now uses to draw these floodplain maps it’s hard to see but we develop a set of these maps for all the communities the old floodplain privacy here in blue shade but it is what it is but this is the legal fun during that paint represents actual floodplain today and the orange represents what with me a hundred years from now so that’s not very impressive that’s hard to see so I’m just going to summarize the results for you when we look at the changes from the flood insurance study into the current legal floodplain map to existing condition today from 2000 by us the latest language that we had we saw that the discharge of the USGS gate station attackers falls during the Hundred Years storm if you’ve seen a river during hundred year storms you know that they’re raging right so that discharge goes up has gone up by 56% already the water surface elevation has gone up two point seven feet so it’s going over the bridges now and 100-year floodplain area increased by twenty percent if you start thinking it of where we like to build our houses and our businesses next two rivers that’s prime land for building its prime land for agriculture and you can see me losing twenty percent of that’s already happening and then if we look after the future 2005 to 2100 we see an additional increase of sixty-six percent above that fifty six percent an additional increase in the water surface elevation of 4.4 feet so it’s going to go 4.4 plus the 2.7 I mean seven point seven point one feet and additional loss in flood plain area fourteen percent what we are message to the communities is you need to begin planning for this what are you going to do with you put a whole bunch of buildings in these areas and they all fail so maybe that’s been okay in the past because we didn’t know but now we know so let’s figure out how to solve this problem and not make our communities more vulnerable but minicar communities were resilient this is not easy that land is worth a lot of money bears could be a lot of profit that’s lost but not this land in the short term there’s a lot of money that can be saved and probably alive saved in the long term if we actually think about how it is we’re going to deal with this problem moving forward you can imagine you know I got depressed they can give it a lot of this information so small victories are wonderful and so on the page 7 or page 8 of the application for alteration terrain permit adventure they have actually changed this check box so it is the same great fall amount obtained for the door lock from these pc’s this ATP 40 technical paper 40 which was the NOAA official publication for the 24 hour a hundred year design storm which is really old and in with using data in 1963 for what both engineers used to say actually go to this new Cornell precipitation Atlas and that’s where the new 8.5 inches of the design storm actually comes from so if there’s one thing you walk away from tonight if you’re involved in any kind of infrastructure development please make sure that the engineers at least do the designs based around the cornell atlas and not just DP for you they’ll be impressed that you actually know both of those videos but as a result of our studying other studies New Hampshire des actually changes permanent process which we hope will actually save us a lot of money and suffering in the future alright so more precipitation that means we’re going to have more water all the time right not so true so because our summers warm up and summer precipitation doesn’t go out much it turns out that not only are we going to get more floods but we’re going to get more trade so if you just focus on the left-hand column there the one that’s on top of one to three months so the top figure you can’t see it but it says 1961 to 90 99 that’s the frequency of drought in a 30 year period and those lime green stones represent about 15 10 to 15 drugs in a 30 year period right typically New England suffers a dreaded short-term trev in summertime once every three to four years but we haven’t really had a significant trip recently under the high emission scenario by the end of the century you can see that almost all of New England is paint that means we’re having 30 droughts in a 30 year period and this actually that the way that we figured the sale because we actually modeled soil moisture so its

inputs of precipitation my outputs via evaporation so it’s a very sophisticated study 30 pairs in a 30 year period with a high emission scenarios that’s the dread every summer which I would argue new it is not at all prepared for either the low emission scenario we can see a slight increase in the frequency of dread the one that we could probably add that to certainly much more easily our forests are also going to be changing we have predominated maple beach birch bark just you guys are probably in that in the height of your colors with maple Linux down here no yes yeah i was just up north this weekend and all the leaves are gone up there and then the north country actually is dominated by a screws perforce our forest in terms of recreation and forth products just we did this study accounting from 19 billion dollars and it’s a lot of big part of our economy especially as you get farther north in the region under the high efficient scenario we would expect a climate that would no longer support spruce fir forests anywhere in New England and most of our making beach birch forest would be isolated to the northern parts of the region replaced with an okay curry forest that’s this image down here and the lower emissions carmate Beach Fort Worth will lose the screws perforce I don’t know if there’s a lot we can do to prepare for that but I would argue that we really don’t want to lose our maple Beach perch for so let’s figure out how we had a low emissions pathway in addition if you haven’t been paying attention but if you have here and be very important is this new test that’s arrived called the hemlock woolly adelgid that when it gets on hemlock trees and literally suck sucks the life force out of them and hemlock trees die in three to four years so it turns out in their their geographic spread is limited by one lady cold winter night minus 18 degrees centigrade will kill them all off we’re getting we’re not getting those cold winter nights as as frequently and so by the end of the century we especially see a lot of warming and minimum temperatures in winter we would expect hemlock woolly adelgid to invest in fact all of the forest across the Northeast which would have a significant impact work for us and you know how my bully analogous in the only path we have to worry about they’re not all led directly the climate change but warmer climates seem to be helping an Atlantic disease and a plan Tripoli and West Nile virus so you know one of the big unintended consequences there what tests are enough to deal with in the future that we haven’t had to deal with in the past and then not last another big big thing we looked at it as Northeast climate impact assessment was marine resources and look at the potential loss of the commercial cod fishery which some of my fishing Collingwood say we’ve already lost it certainly lost it in Canada but what we see here is that the thermal young juvenile cod made cold bottom temperatures in order to survive so kerning the thermal habitat for juvenile cod exists in the Gulf of Maine but not in the mid-atlantic bite mid-atlantic vitac still has caught just a juvenile cod but by the end of the century under higher emissions we don’t see thermal habitat existing for young cub anywhere in the Gulf of me and therefore we would expect the entire collapse of the cod fishery sort of to you know layer it on top of 400 years of extracting resources from the Gulf of Maine as well and then whatever one of my favorite pastimes skiing we looked at this we really sort of took a lopsided approach to this we said first of all we said a ski areas are going to remain viable they should be open for a hundred days a year is a pretty good rule of thumb and seventy percent of the time to Christmas and then we allow the ski areas in our model to make as much snow as they wanted so there was no restriction financial or water resources on the amount of student that could make the only restriction was it had to be cold enough right there getting pretty good they can make snow almost right up to 32 maybe sometimes 33 degrees Fahrenheit and then we would ever look at temperatures by the end of the century we model this ski area by ski area some north-facing slopes you know survive a little bit better but the only area that remains remains viable for skiing at the end of the century is the mountains in western Maine which means they meet both of those criteria everywhere else is either vulnerable or highly vulnerable and the impacts are certainly much larger on snowmobiles recreation because you just can’t make something for thousands and thousands of miles so they stopped would even more dramatically which really you think is could be in a represent the collapse of winter recreation at least commercial support for winter recreation across the region here’s last but not least sea

level rise which I’m sure you all knew very important are paying attention to the Newberry when you look at that curve I hope you see that there’s a lot of uncertainty in the future of sea level rise right so here’s how it’s risen so far multiple sea level rise this is from a paper by the rear ramp door but four or five papers and a half for the similar levels of projected sea level rise this was the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated sea level rise from their fourth assessment report back in two thousand seven and the fifth assessment report is now up in in that range way to see by the middle of the century something on the range of one to two feet of sea level rise by the end of the century two and a half six two and a half to seven feet of sea level rise so if you’re a policymaker you going to make a decision or let’s say you’re the Admiral of the Navy you have to make the decision or your head of the army corps of engineers and you’ve got a whole bunch of infrastructure that’s at SEMA when you have to make a decision this is a little disconcerting like you scientists can’t get your act together and figure out how much more come catching narrow the beds and tell me actually how much slimmer eyes is going to happen so it turns out we can’t because we don’t know what’s gonna happen with greenland and nra west at our internet in particular and greenland have started changing their behavior and they doubled the amount of ice that they’re dumping into the ocean there are these huge glaciers that drain the ice sheet just like rivers didn’t move much faster than the rest of the ice sheets have doubled their velocity over the course over the last 15 years in large part because they’re probably located at the bottom but also because sea surface temperatures are warming up and melting the ice shelves so we don’t know if that’s going to speed up stay the same or slow down we don’t have good models to tell the public decision makers what’s going to happen and as a result there’s a huge range on how much sea levels will your eyes what’s interesting is that over the course of the past 10 to 15 years the rage has never got lower right that bottom part of the range increases a little bit and the top part of the range increases a lot so the message here sure there’s uncertainty but it’s not going to be any less than a foot by the middle of the century and it’s not going to be any less than a couple of feet by the end of the century so time to start preparing for that right we do not have the money to protect all of the eastern seaboard from two feet of sea level rise in the next year but we don’t have to we’ve got time to see actually what’s going to happen with sea level rise as long as we begin to lay the foundation for how we think about dealing with civil arise and my my colleague Paul kirshen it works on coastal infrastructure will say there’s really three things you can do you can protect it by putting up big sea walls but they have their own challenges that you know about here in newbury park you can adapt you can change your structure so you can adapt with high above sea level so you can put your building on big posts for example you can have a bottom foundation that knocks at if it doesn’t knock your heads down or you can retreat or you can do a fourth thing which is do nothing to stick your head in the sand and hope something that sea levels aren’t going to rise which is going to have and those are not easy decisions right because these are people’s homes that they’ve had for a long time but it’s a reality of the future and how much longer can taxpayers keep paying for people to rebuild their house houses in these areas it’s going to be a really tough discussion i would suggest probably nowhere tough with it right here in this community but this is you have to start preparing for one foot by the middle of the century and two feet by the end of the century and let’s see what develops as we get as we move along we’ll sign it’s going to get better and narrow these predictions as before so yeah that’s just a sinus a you know a big part of the uncertainties what’s happening with Antarctica and Greenland but you can see in the blue line and the pink line that let’s sea level contribution is continuing to get more and more and more all right so I just did this to show people in coastal New Hampshire what what I’m talking about 11 feet 12 feet of tidal range what’s it a couple of feet of sea level rise be well the challenge is always when we have a really big storm right so those bars this is actually the scale this was probably as good from plum island as it is for riding Hampshire so there’s low tide the high tide 9 10 11 feet tidal range storm surge current made close to the Hampshire is about eight to nine feet you add sea level rise that 2050 of that’s one point seven feet by 2100 you get up to that 6.3 feet and then you know worst of all worlds we have that big nor’easter that considered king tide which in close to the New Hampshire adds another couple of feet so if you have thats little water coming in the second floor somebody’s hands right so the

problem is not the data desi little Rigel that has problems with it but the big problem is what we have such big Nor’easters that happens for astronomical high tide and they end up the road in beaches and watching houses away so just give you a sense of the potential future this is probably applicable very poor but here’s our over here flood is injured in static wat river at our title means that we have up there as a current hundred year flood 6.8 feet above I i if you add sea level rise at 2100 and king tide under privacy level right that can be as high as fifteen point three feet so we’ll get more than a doubling of what the existed hundred years storm surge by hit the max I’m about to show you our 4 12 feet above mean hihi walk all these numbers are for me above main high water which is sort of the average of the highest daily time so the mass of showing you are not the worst case scenario by a long stretch and I picked one I haven’t done these from newberry order Plum Island I encourage you I think to pursue them because they’re very illustrative he might recognize this so Seabrook and Hampton the senior Camden estuary and back there you can see the nuclear power plant back in there so we’ve got this little differently in what I bought in here is if there’s a a storm at results of injuries in sea level 12 feet above mean hihi why if you’re in yellow here that means the depth of water over the land is zero if that the wire over zero completely in the pain in three to six so here you start you meditate your big typically right three to six feet you got to start living again Anna boat six to nine feet in orange right you got to start thinking about getting a much bigger boat and greater the nine feet like it’s probably time to leave so if you take a look up there at hampton beach you can see that well you can see here we can see right this is a really big residential area in secret that’s a big bird you can find that it goes down to a bold and back he’s home right on the way there’s nine feet of water talk to recover from from the Sun repair smart say it and tanisha most of the businesses I want to move higher hampton beach or underwater these are still water elevations they don’t capture the impact of any significant wave action right the good news here is that our nuclear power plant is an underwater they built it high enough so that it should be good for a few more decades hopefully I don’t know what they’ve done of their generators which was the problem was Fukushima but you know when you think of any tax dollars for Seabrook that come from this set of homes that’s along the beach this would be devastating for the community and I would argue with result it I don’t have that community survives with that the tax revenue from those homes oh it’s not a very different situation for come on right that level of sea level rise is really going to put most of those homers a dress similar a map that we did for Portsmouth New Hampshire you probably not as familiar with the geography up there that lots of our our downtown area is currently being developed actually goes on there sort of three to six to nine water I story looking at this map you today saying wow all that stuff’s it’s underwater that’s where people never built in the past but the biggest concern when I look at these is that I’ll anoint up there because that’s our Portsmouth Naval Shipyard which used to be three ODS and it’s now one on which is why the Navy is all over the issue of climate change is dave at a time right hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars of infrastructure at sea level and we need to start thinking about what we’re going to do with our naval facilities around the country all right so where do we go from here this is all very depressing and yet I remain optimistic and I would argue that we are at that proverbial fork in the path of the woods and the path that we’ve traveled is one where we just stick our heads in the sand and continue to rely upon fossil fuels as a resource of it and I would argue that we already at the point where we no longer have a choice to go down that path we have to within a different pathway where we invest in energy efficiency and renewable technologies and in our communities we work hard especially with our budgets to figure out how it is we make our

communities more resilient to the new climate normal and I think another pathway that’s one that I’ve been thinking about most recently another part of the path less traveled is really what is it that we do with all of our investments so you know I’m a climate scientist I’ve doing this problems come and going on five years but I still put my retirement fund that goes up essentially smokestacks and trying to run it put into the stock market and it disappears it makes me a good ready to return and I’m happy but I no longer happen because what I’m going to do is the best that money in my community and there’s a number of different new instruments and tools that are being developed to be able to invest in your community but also have an agenda can spread the risk / enough investments such that you make a great return I don’t know about Massachusetts many of us have some examples but in New Hampshire we have the community loan fund it is the greatest her job at these investments you give your money to the community loan fund they invested like a great community work with it and their default rate is less than what the big banks is and so because transitioning to be more energy secure and to be more weather resilient is going to take an upfront investment I think we have to figure out a way that we don’t look to our federal government to do this cuz I they losing faith in my federal government especially to think about addressing big issues like this at a community scale I think we’re still going to be funding or military okay that’s the problem but you know where we get the money to protect our communities and I think we need to figure out how we invest in our communities and have those communities provide us with a rate of return on our investment and I’m not an investment specialist but I actually see this as the major barrier we need to get that community money on the street to help make homes more energy-efficient I had to help communities adapt now so that we can save money in the future so we’ll just finish up with a couple of examples a lot of my examples from New Hampshire you guys have a great climate action plan in message section have a law that codified that climate action plan and those greenhouse gas reductions into law you’re really leading the nation in that way but really it’s pretty climate action plan is pretty straightforward you got to make your buildings more energy-efficient with a new renewable energy generation you gotta protect your natural resources right you don’t want to go and cut that on trees for energy if you do want to cut them down for timber and some energy you got to make sure you don’t pave that Lynn gotta let those trees regrowth let expand our agricultural production to improve our our food security many government action should leave and they actually have to figure out at a community level which you guys are grafted is how we adapt to the future so I think I’ll just finish up a couple more slides here this is true from Massachusetts I put the new hampshire slide up here we’re actually doing the right thing reducing our greenhouse gas emissions while we’re growing our gross state product then you could argue that’s not the best measure it’s just an easy measure and one that’s easy to get but this this separation of greenhouse gases and gross state product is exactly what we have to do we’re going to use energy we need energy you can’t run our economy turns for quality of life without energy we just have to get it without burning greenhouse gas they’re going to increase the gross state product while you reduce your greatest gas emissions that’s exactly what we need to continue doing any new england is sort of new england in california are really leading the nation in this respect so we’re already doing it we just have to do it better per capita emissions of greenhouse gases you can see massachusetts is doing pretty well there and hampshire is not far behind given the amount of money we spend a lot less money the Massachusetts death but we’re doing pretty well and trying to keep up with you guys again are they the nation in them from different aspects so I’ll stop there if this PowerPoint will be available to you all of the resources that I talked about the images I showed is in one of those references up there if you really wanted to get into climate science you can check out these papers thank you and they’ll have an answer any questions you might have yeah so the questions about the frequency of how can they have drives in floods at the same time and essentially the drugs are always going to come in the summertime and the floods are going to become in the other season so think about our big floods right they don’t occur in summertime his actual actually the niqua system to suck up all that

water anyway so in March 2010 that was a scream so March at early spring rain on unfrozen ground the six and 07 events both April and May you know the worst case which we can’t even model instead we’re going to precipitation winter is going to go up as well as the shoulder season but if we get an increase in winter precipitation which we project it’s going to be warmer so it’s going to occur as rain but there’s no snow on the ground it’s still cold enough for the ground to freeze that would be the worst case that we have frozen ground no snow cover and a really big precipitation event which is sort of what happened in March 2010 so yeah driver since summer slugs other time of the year it’s like it’s like a definition of elsewhere so we get huge changes in ecosystems in lot of life but Ellie that’s going to have a big driver room on flooding especially if we’re if we’re getting rid of more of those ecosystems and you know the impacts on wildlife that’s just that’s that’s tough wildlife if you did climate stuff to model wildlife dynamics you know like just the dynamics of a lot of the one kick disease are are really difficult but yes so there’s and there’s certainly going to be some up to some unknown consequences of what’s going on but I think for the the flood story we’ve got it pretty well nailed down in that especially if we continue to pave the watershed but yet droughts and floods increasing in frequency every year even where we are right now where we sit right now 100 years you now this building I would say that’s a reasonable and the Autobahn I mean it is but it’s not flooded I don’t be a beautiful nest American angelito bogus prison for yes there’s no we’re waiting for that I don’t know the geography here talking you’re talking a seaport hampton and we’ve talked a lot of one of their adaptation measures will be to wherever they can not develop land that’s close to the salt marsh the stock market like that feeling it that’s here there’s not quiet place to support so so I mean it would there are some areas where I think it could move inland that they don’t drag along with one so it’s going to migrate where it has pledged to migrate people migrate to where it doesn’t have place in to migrate both places that are hard will be more reference if there’s ice for the salt marsh to move in and it is the moving me there was no salt marsh here 2000 years ago right it’s a recent phenomenon of sea level which arose from 18,000 to 10,000 years ago Rose 400 feet so there are there a survey a modern somebody’s waiting animated back there incoming situation with fever before new regulations can believe that the flood zone or something like limitations of new structures had to be 12 feet plus foot above me by television Tom Peters is to consider being for our vision well so it’s early so I get a details on you thought you would crush why or ocean flushing and blogging about the vertical data or the feet high water so it’s I mean it’s it’s it changes depending on where you are but about 12 feet above the north american vertical datum sounds about right for coastal flooding where we are you think they hook to that well massachusetts would have fema happen or maybe if they draw a new maps they’ve done it but Nina’s not a challenge that they refuse to look in the future we are controversial project thing proposed for the new report waterfront now commercial residential project 70,000 square feet within the looked called commonwealth tilings beside historically flow right up against Water Street chapters a local chapter 91 of Massachusetts for the use of title and you have to get a special license or

permit and met count lost regulations say you have to take into consideration three-foot steeler sea level rise over the lifetime of a project which they estimate to be 75 years for a typical project what are we both the implications of having to raise base elevation of destruction by those three feet giving is it currently that the people are proposing the project or ignoring this particular fact so you can’t let the regard but what are you hoping to yeah the illustrator recognized but they’re unwilling to recognize it and putting off recognizing it until half to the negative decision about granting someone permission to do it right so forcing them is a social problem and so I can’t experience it but but the ramifications are I would say significant for the cost of that structure to actually raise it three feet but there’s plenty of examples especially if you go to Germany in the Netherlands of companies that have done exactly that they have actually bought their bottom they have street levels that are essentially a level above the street and their bottom floors are for parking we don’t build swimming pools to put their parking in the bottom is for parking so you can move all those cars etc and then they have their where they walk actually under care assistant said 11 story up and so there’s plenty of examples and I have a friend in Portsmouth who called me up six years ago as can be building a new house what should i do I said raising three feet above the height of anybody tells me to do it and he did and he put didn’t put any of this heating or air conditioning in the basement he put it on the first floor of a second floor they just build a hospital in Boston the same thing so short-term its cousin the ramifications are it’s going to cost more long-term it’s going to end up making that facility have a much longer lifetime and so if I if I you know so this is I’m going to give you some social advice from a scientist so just take it for what it is but I would really be asking the question who’s paying the insurer who’s who’s paying for the insurance on this building and I would I would wrestle a guarantee from them that not a cent of taxpayer money goes in to ensuring that property year to year or for rebuilding it when it gets destroyed we cannot continue the pup to push public money into private buildings which is the natural slight insurance program is bankrupt it’s been tripped by billions of dollars and so now we’re changing the floodplains and it’s going to cost people a lot more for flood insurance and families are not going to be there’s already happening in new jersey new york occurred some examples from up here on Plum Island if you can’t get them to be aware just ask about the insurance question and say that you’re not going to bail minute it’s your building you take care don’t come don’t ever come back to us and ask for money to fix it at some point you need to get them to understand that it’s in their best interest to actually take into account sea level rise and so I’ll tell you this is really going on social stuff you know I gotta tell you the people that resists the issue of climate change the most seem to me to be people who have made lots of money in their lives and think they’re just didn’t know it all they’re in charge I get told about climate science all the time by wealthy individuals I study this stuff I studied it for 25 years you really is I can’t emphasize enough you have to get through especially to developers and if you can if you can convince them that they’re going to make more money if they pay attention that’s a corner that we have to do I’m going to drop hockey just start calling another grams for me and just start referred to as the big day that’s a really expensive suite I don’t want to swim anywhere near those tiles yes sorry what wouldn’t behind you first she was fast into the drum or or so that really it’s all of the above you can’t really solve it with anyone technology so it’s all the technologies but the one that is the biggest and the most effective is

actually energy efficiency we in Germany they use half the amount of energy leaves and they have similar quality of life in economy so I don’t know about Massachusetts put in Hampshire we have half a million homes and it went half a million of them are energy efficient so we got to renovate those and that’s a great workforce development we’ve just got to get on and do it and then certainly wind has those wonderful opportunities for win we have to solve the problem on where to cite it so we don’t have all these not in my backyard right but we have to come out in a big open massive public discussion and say this is where winds going to go where is that going to be I’m on the person is going to dictate it but name is investing in a huge way and offshore floated win huge amount of money going in develop that technology and there is no shortage of energy they’re talking about powering New England with offshore wind and main so wins the solar there should not be a building into England and that doesn’t have solar hot water nine months of the year we can generate most of the hot water we need it’s cost effective it pays for itself in four to five years we should just be doing that and then frankly photovoltaics work we just have to have better net metering laws so that whenever we were putting into the grid we’re getting out of wholesale get a retail price of that which means it gets subtracted from our bill at car for when we’re using energy so it’s not going to solve all our problems but again Germany not a sunny place right solar leader clearly we have biomass across New England I don’t think we should cut down on our force but we shouldn’t be using those s’mores to generate energy that’s really electricity that’s a very inefficient process so twenty five percent efficiency when you take wood chips and Berlin for electricity seventy to eighty percent when you burn that as heat in your home better than that if you have a wood pellet stove so wood for thermal heating or district would eating and make that make sense and then the big technology leak there is we might be able to get cellulosic ethanol so much me asking if the bacteria right you have to figure out how to do this but how do we get liquid fuel out of our trees geothermal lots of opportunity for geothermal across the Northeast it’s expensive to retrofit for new buildings we should be doing it and then sort of on the cusp not quite there if I had a lot of money to invest like billions of dollars I would be invest oh tidal and wave energy we’ve been talking about it for 20 years but you know we’re not going to be doing big algae ponds and you ain’t never gonna be happening in California and Arizona but but ocean energy I mean you all stood up there on that ocean and seeing the energy there’s a lot of energy we just haven’t figured out how to harness it I miss it that’s pretty good you should you get over scripts for half of that mission really a scam yes yeah per capita missions are going out of populations growing we actually if you the major drivers been more expensive to what we’ve been getting a little bit more efficient I think I think there’s a price signal but we’ve also had a whole bunch of different programs right and you turn our lights off and probably a big driver is the expansion of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative which is force companies to reduce the amount of carbon theme and for killed a lot of energy potion hi hi small aww so at great great point by I’m going to disagree with how so on one point so we don’t use the word mitigate for both in

the climate work so we use mitigation is reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation is responding to climate change except fila uses the word mitigation for adapting to climate I’ll stick to the adaptation of innovation separation so with that said the most effective adaptation strategy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the amount of page that we need to adapt to so that we adapt to 2 feet of sea level rise instead of 16 in school so then the question is if that suppose if you agree with that premise then why act locally when it’s a global issue so the real reason to act locally I’d agree with you is that actually you want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions because the way we get there is how we become more energy secure so we are not sort of at the beck and call of global energy Marines we should think of it being independent Yankees with the energy that we produce and that’s going to be really good for our time we rightly well it’s a different reason but it solves the same problem so that the second part of that is we know that most of the carbon in the atmosphere comes from that carbon morally belongs to the developed world it’s not the developing world that has put it there the problem we are in today is because of the developed world the problem 50 years from now is going to be that of the developing world so I would say we’re morally obliged to act and as a result of that we know that China and India will not act unless the United States Tax you’re mistaken of leadership role the United States has not and so China will continue to drag its feet as an idiot Brazil Indonesia after it if the u.s. does not show some leadership on this issue that I am certain of it so why not why can’t you England well in California be the leaders of this country so the reason we do it is because we figure out how to do it and then we help the developing world develop on a pathway that is fundamentally different from the pathway we develop so that’s that’s that’s how i feel you saw the problem is and actually the u.s. is in this critical role and the other piece is that I just don’t buy this well if we don’t do it if you know if you know it is the problem since when has United States look at a serious global problem and said yeah we don’t want to lead on that nice but we pride ourselves on being a global leader so why not lead on this issue I do not understand why we don’t think that this now have the other part of your question is an individual living on Plum Island I think there’s a point there because I think in the not too distant each of those houses are going to be so I would invest in frankly I would invest in a property somewhere else and I’m not I understand that’s difficult and I’m not trying to be funny but if I have a sitting down with my family and I had a place on Plum Island i would say who can I sell this to tomorrow or can I afford to just accept that it’s going to be washed away at some point in time and I will no longer have it and where will I go to live and I would not be putting a bunch of silver hands on it or fixing it up I would be figuring out a way as my family could afford another problem you got mad and I don’t have that problem so maybe that’s easy for me to say I know that that comes with some some a lot of date for another problem that you may run into is that you may rich will fit your home but if your neighbor and in town doesn’t also raise the streets you’re going to be setting up an hour’s that may be out in order so absolutely so you have to make that consideration up do you want to spend a bunch of money on that house that is likely going to flood in the future and that’s not a tough tough decision i would say you probably don’t you certainly don’t want to move to florida i right I tell about I tell my students is they do not let your parents buy anything in Florida rent it enjoy it while it’s there but but the there you know they don’t have any elevation the scariest thing you said for me the inertia temperature rise is developed that it’s going to be 80 to 90 years before we see a change pretty much despite what we do a 40 to 50 or going gud kappa the middle of the century it’s a tiger fish and what pretty tight in that because we have enough trouble

getting your mindset bottom through seek results but to have two to three generations of doing this and not seeing results that’s going to take up that’s going to be a pretty happy because yeah that’s going to be and robotic countries this country’s that very good notice another base and I had never realized that lifetime and so there’s a huge social and cultural challenge in a in a society that really looks to bring a v8 gratification and we’re not talking border the coffins here talking I think is one of the reasons that we haven’t been able to deal with this problem and then secondly it’s been pretty easy for those who stand to benefit because as quote being energy companies for a while the company but not anymore heaven England to bed moodily American public they had a hundred million dollar plus marketing campaigns and you’re really good the way you are your life’s fine don’t worry what this guy is talking about quantity it’s way easier to sell your ok the way it is the need to change the flip side I would say is that you know climate scientists are really not good partners right beep so where we can starts are 20 years behind it’s not really our job to market our job sort of telling the truth as best we understand but it is one of the crosses of the problem and the one place that took place is actually that I think if people think really long term for their children’s education and insurance and so I think those for me or to examine it’s not about us and in fact our generation think I can say that we have I am completely fail we have picked a can down the road essentially so that we could have a better quality of life and Weavin we read the way we act suggest that we don’t really care that much we obviously care of our kids and our grandkids and their individual just wondering as a climate scientist what do you think about nuclear so nuclei that certainly several funded scientist James Hansen among the most prominent and said we got any going on nuclear only way we can solve a problem because I don’t see humans change behavior and you know he argues that there’s a whole new set of nuclear power plant if they’re coming up that are much smaller and less safe so I’m not a nuclear scientist so I don’t know but certainly the current system I think we do not go down that pathway because not only because of the fact that there’s problems with the nuclear power plants as they are just too damn bees and tidal waves but certainly there’s a whole terrorist aspect to it but the most concerning for me comes back to like I actually study this it is the economics of it right just like you can’t you have their flood insurance from the federal government right nuclear power plants cannot pay the insurance on their facility that insurance is paid by unity and therefore is an economic model that is not sustainable unless we want to keep holdin the bill so I am I come from Canada and actually Social Democrat right you can call me socialist and I don’t get upset I become more and more of a libertarian in that I think I don’t think I should be some of these traitors like let’s just open it up get rid of the subsidies would be very big gas and let’s just see who wins because we have subsidized nuclear I mean when I was a kid you remember this energy will be too cheap to meter right not so much so that i’m sure i don’t i don’t think nuclear as it is today it is an answer we come up with something that’s much safer and therefore plants that could insure themselves and and you know deal with this whole terrorist threat and the waist big butt and when we do yo i took one at blackboard one morgan has to be quick okay Wow who’s got you guys fight amongst yourselves if you have one already I alright the session of our ears mitigation strategies like writing will things like

that in your car though it is it it’s as as you have seen with your own eyes it’s a very short term solution when you’re desperate you will certainly investment short for exclusion so at least a part of the conversations so what are going to do this year but what are we to do ten years what are we going to do 20 years what are we going to do 30 years now that needs to be part of every discussion that a family has that community has that the state has and the nation has what does climate change mean for this position and I don’t have all the answers but we need to start having the adult conversation not sick wow they don’t have to worry afterward and as we start now we r stairs enough sort of money in public long term that will build community resilient and there may be difficult decisions but we have that those are those financial resources over decades you don’t have this one year that’s why we have to thank it’s the same way and i’ll provide the organizers with the powerpoint if you want to see the slides you guys can put it up on on the store’s website good luck with all your work